The Fed sticks to its plans despite looming demand surge and market worries

In Short

In the March meeting the Fed showed a strong conviction that the sizeable rounds of fiscal stimulus will have only a transitory effect on the economy, not capable to driving substantially up expected and, above all, realized inflation.

Highlights:

  • The message sent at the March meeting was one of strong continuity: short-term forecasts for growth and inflation were revised substantially up, and the healing of the labour market is expected to proceed faster. However, the medium-term view did not change much, especially for inflation.
  • As a consequence, the monetary policy path remains the same: no rate hikes are deemed appropriated before end-2023. Similarly, any talk of tapering remains premature. Any change of direction is predicated on actual data, not on expectations.
  • The rise in bond yields was put into perspective: overall financial conditions remain favourable and do not require any changes to the composition of bond holdings. On banking, changes to the leverage regulation and to restrictions on dividend are forthcoming, but not details were provided.

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The Fed sticks to its plans despite looming demand surge and market worries

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