Market Compass March 2024

In Short

A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Highlights:

  • Overly ambitious rate cuts expectations by the turn of the year have deflated to now far more reasonable levels. We are starting to warm up to bonds; any further investor capitulation will be an opportunity to extend duration.
  • Equity markets have proven remarkably resilient to the central bank repricing. The bifurcation between high yield and resilient equity owes much to the ‘AI miracle’ and rising optimism about the economy.
  • We see a bit of complacency considering the still fragile point of the cycle, and with (geo)political risk lurking, bullish investor sentiment and positioning, as well as depressed risk asset volatility.
  • Our underweights (UW) in Equities and High Yield (HY) credit are small, but we prefer safer Investment Grade (IG) buckets in Fixed Income and retain a tactical cash overweight.

 

Download the full publication below

Compass 03 2024 FINAL.pdf
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