Market Compass September 2022

In Short

A team of analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Highlights:

  • Hawkish speeches at Jackson Hole have poured cold water on nascent hopes that policy setters may blink soon and slow or stop rate rises amid rising recession risks.
  • Equity valuations and (thus far resilient) earnings will face stiffer headwinds into winter, with a recession in Europe looming amid an energy crunch and higher rates.
  • Investor positioning remains very bearish, leaving scope for selective bounces. Yet we still favour an underweight in riskier assets. The strong demand for the stretched USD is unlikely to reverse soon.

 

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Market Compass September 2022
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