Tapering begins, but it is not yet time for higher Fed funds rates

In Short

As widely expected, and effectively telegraphed by the Fed, tapering will begin in November, as the economy has made substantial further progress toward the goals the FOMC set. The Fed will reduce bond purchases by US$ 15bn (US$ 10 in Treasuries and US$ 5 bn in MBS) per month starting from mid- November, leading to zero net purchases by June.

Highlights:

  • As widely expected, the Fed will start reducing bond purchases before the end of the month. Net purchases will end in June.
  • The well-advertised view that the current inflation is just a temporary phenomenon was, detailed in the press release, which also hinted at supply bottlenecks as the major cause of slow employment growth and volatile activity. The belief that the easing of constraints will lead to stronger employment growth and more moderate inflation was reiterated too.
  • Chair Powell repeated that the much more demanding test for lift-off is not met as the labour market remains weak, partially pushing back against market expectations of an early rate hike in mid-2022. Importantly, the FOMC thinks that when full employment is reached (by Q3-2022 at the earliest) it is possible that inflation could be at a level consistent with a rate hike. We still point to Q4 2022 as the most likely time for the first rate hike.

Download the full publication below

Tapering begins, but it is not yet time for higher Fed funds rates
Picture

© Generali Investments, all rights reserved. This website is provided by Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A. (Generali Investments) and is considered as a marketing communication and financial promotion related its products and services. This website may contain information related to the activity of the following companies: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC (including Aperture Investors UK Ltd), Plenisfer Investments S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Lumyna Investments Limited, Sosteneo S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Conning* and among its subsidiaries Global Evolution Asset Management A/S - including Global Evolution USA, LLC and Global Evolution Fund Management Singapore Pte. Ltd - Octagon Credit Investors, LLC, Pearlmark Real Estate, LLC as well as Generali Investments CEE. *Includes Conning, Inc., Conning Asset Management Limited, Conning Asia Pacific Limited, Conning Investment Products, Inc., Goodwin Capital Advisers, Inc. (collectively, “Conning”).