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Market Compass April 2022

In Short

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Highlights:

  • The Russia-Ukraine war has exacerbated two of the key risks for 2022: much higher energy prices and tougher central banks. 
  • Central banks have been handed a “mission impossible”: bringing unacceptably high inflation rates down, without causing a hard landing. 
  • We expect central banks to slightly undershoot ambitious market pricing, given our below-consensus growth forecasts.
  • We recommend reducing the cyclicality of portfolios and turn very selective in picking risk assets. We see little value in chasing the March equity market rebound at this level of valuation.

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Market Compass April 2022
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