China’s NPC meeting: The way back to normal

Highlights:

• Beginning on March 5, the annual meeting of China’s National People’s Congress will set China’s economic and political agenda for 2021.
• We expect policy to withdraw some of its support, with the main negative impulse coming from fiscal policy. Monetary policy will normalise only cautiously, in our view. We expect no explicit growth target to be set for this year.
• The new Five Year Plan (FYP) is likely to promote the targets of the recent Dual Circulation Strategy, e.g. improving private consumption, getting more independent from international supply chains and fostering technological advancement. Another topic will be the greening of the economy.

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