Market Compass January 2021

In Short

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.


  • After a weak Q1, vaccine rollout and – especially in the US – further fiscal stimulus will allow the economy to rebound strongly later in spring.
  • Monetary policy will remain tilted to accommodation: central banks’ bond purchases will continue until the activity is on a strong footing.
  • Moreover, the reduction of political uncertainty in the UK and US warrants an increase in exposure to risker assets.
  • A deeper weakening of US dollar favours exposure to Emerging Markets (EMs); reflation expectations make cash and core Government Bonds unattractive.
Market Compass January 2021

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