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Market Compass February 2022

In Short

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Highlights:

  • Fed tightening will start in March. Compared with the previous rate hiking cycle it will be less predictable, more data-dependant, and possibly faster.
  • We still expect the unfinished global recovery and decent earnings growth to support risk assets. Yet two key risks are materialising: a tougher Fed and rising energy prices. We scaled back our Equity overweight.
  • In Fixed Income we retain an overweight in Credit given residual ECB support and resilient fundamentals; we stay UW long-dated Govies.
  • The USD will continue in the short term to enjoy the support from higher US rates, but we expect a reversal later this year.

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Market Compass February 2022
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