- Yesterday, the UK and the EU agreed on the terms of a withdrawal agreement, which UK Prime Minister (PM) May presented to her Cabinet, gaining only a majority approval.
- The agreement was possible due to a compromise on the Ireland border issue, which now foresees the whole UK to temporarily stay in the EU Customs Union.
- That said, May faces stiff resistance. The Northern Ireland DUP stated that it would vote against the deal and according to media reports May could soon face a no confidence vote triggered by members of her own conservative party.
- In our view, the risk of a crash Brexit has increased. Financial markets reacted with safe haven flows.