January 21, 2019

China’s Q4 GDP growth confirmed slowing of economy, more measured government help likely.

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In Short

China’s GDP growth weakened to 6.4% yoy in the fourth quarter, down from 6.5%yoy in the previous period. Given the headwinds from domestic regulatory tightening and a softer global growth environment, we expect China’s growth to continue moderating in H1. Regarding the trade negotiations with the US, a positive outcome could bring some relief.
China’s Q4 GDP growth confirmed slowing of economy, more measured government help likely.
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Highlights:

  • China’s GDP growth weakened to 6.4% yoy in the fourth quarter, down from 6.5%yoy in the previous period.
  • Given the headwinds from domestic regulatory tightening and a softer global growth environment, we expect China’s growth to continue moderating in H1. Regarding the trade negotiations with the US, a positive outcome could bring some relief.
  • More support from economic policy has already been announced (about 1.5% of GDP), but policymakers have so far ruled out a “flood” of stimulus like that Beijing relied on in the past. We see the regulatory tightening to be continued moderately.

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CHINA’S Q4 GDP GROWTH CONFIRMED SLOWING OF ECONOMY, MORE MEASURED GOVERNMENT HELP LIKELY.

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