- China’s GDP growth weakened to 6.4% yoy in the fourth quarter, down from 6.5%yoy in the previous period.
- Given the headwinds from domestic regulatory tightening and a softer global growth environment, we expect China’s growth to continue moderating in H1. Regarding the trade negotiations with the US, a positive outcome could bring some relief.
- More support from economic policy has already been announced (about 1.5% of GDP), but policymakers have so far ruled out a “flood” of stimulus like that Beijing relied on in the past. We see the regulatory tightening to be continued moderately.