November 14, 2019

China’s real activity data surprised on the downside

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In Short

Today, China’s real activity data came in weaker than expected, putting in doubt earlier positive signals.
China’s real activity data surprised on the downside
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Highlights:

  • Today, China’s real activity data came in weaker than expected, putting in doubt earlier positive signals.
  • As already published at the end of last week, the October inflation rate had strongly shot up on accelerating food prices while non-food inflation continued to show a lack of demand.
  • China’s economic outlook depends very much on the development of the trade war with the US. We assume a “Phase 1” trade deal in December with the looming tariff hike in December to be cancelled.
  • However, this will only decelerate China’s slowing and supportive monetary and fiscal policy is still warranted.

Download the full publication below

CHINA’S REAL ACTIVITY DATA SURPRISED ON
THE DOWNSIDE

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