October 19, 2020

CHINA’S RECOVERY CONTINUED BUT A BIT SOFTER THAN EXPECTED

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In Short

China's economic recovery continued in Q3 2020, although a bit softer than expected. Real GDP growth rose to 4.9% yoy, slightly below the Reuters consensus expectation of 5.2% yoy, but still a substantial upturn from the 3.2% yoy in Q2. On a quarterly base, growth dynamics softened to 2.7% qoq, after 11.7% qoq and -10% qoq in the two previous quarters.
CHINA’S RECOVERY CONTINUED BUT A BIT SOFTER THAN EXPECTED
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Highlights:

  • China’s Q3 GDP growth picked up to 4.9% yoy, a bit softer than expected.
  • However, monthly activity data suggest the recovery is still strengthening and broadening to the demand side.
  • We maintain our 2020 growth forecast of 2.1% , although weaker activity in Q3 highlights downside risks. China will most likely be one of the few countries around the globe able to post positive real growth in 2020.
  • Given the ongoing demand recovery, we expect the PBoC to stay on the side-lines for the time being.

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MARKET COMMENTARY: CHINA’S RECOVERY CONTINUED BUT A BIT SOFTER THAN EXPECTED
October 19th, 2020

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