Disappointing November US job figures raise hopes of a deal on fiscal stimulus


  • In November private payrolls grew by just 245k units, well below expectations. Employment stalled or decreased in the sectors most exposed to rising infections.
  • The unemployment rate went down due to a reduction in labour participation, highlighting the possible long-term labour market consequences of the infection.
  • With employment still more than 6% below the pre-crisis level, pressure is mounting for a fiscal stimulus bridging the gap before vaccines availability enables a growth pick up. Senate Republicans have opened to a compromise on a 900 US$ package.
  • At the same time, these numbers add to the case for Fed action on Treasury purchases.

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Disappointing November US job figures raise hopes of a deal on fiscal stimulus


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The thin majority in the Senate will allow the incoming administration to deliver quickly a sizeable fiscal stimulus. We expect a package worth around US$ 800bn (on top of the US$ 900bn already agreed on in December), centred on the strengthening of direct income support to households, extended unemployment benefit and aid to local governments.