- Yesterday evening, the UK House of Commons voted in a second reading on the controversial Internal Market Bill. Despite some high profile Tory MPs opposition, the bill secured a comfortable majority of 77 votes (340 to 263). A next reading with possible amendments will come next Tuesday. The bill also needs the consent of the House of Lords, which looks shaky for now.
- The EU already issued an ultimatum to withdraw this legislation by end of September or the UK to face legal consequences. The fresh legislation undercuts provisions of the Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.
- As UK PM Johnson defended the legislation, both parties look set to be on a clash course. Although the legal consequences draw on the Withdrawal Agreement and are not directly connected to the ongoing trade negotiations, the issue nevertheless sours the mood and undermines trust. Currently, we judge the likelihood of a Brexit trade deal at 50% at best.