MARKET COMPASS
DECEMBER 2019

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team.
A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.

The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

  • Receding political risks, tentative signs of macro stabilization and accommodative central banks have underpinned risky assets, benefitting our pro-risk stance.

  • Markets are already discounting a number of good news, warranting a somewhat more cautious tactical allocation stance into year-end.

  • That said, this environment is still boding well for risk sentiment. Low inflation, reduced risks of recession and sustained monetary policy support will keep a lid on core yields while still underpinning risk assets.

  • As the upside potential for prices is lower than few months ago, we slightly reduced the overweight in Credit and Equities, and lowered the underweight in Core Govies and Cash.

MARKET COMPASS
DECEMBER 2019

RELATED INSIGHTS

CHINA’S RECOVERY CONTINUED BUT A BIT SOFTER THAN EXPECTED
China's economic recovery continued in Q3 2020, although a bit softer than expected. Real GDP growth rose to 4.9% yoy, slightly below the Reuters consensus expectation of 5.2% yoy, but still a substantial upturn from the 3.2% yoy in Q2. On a quarterly base, growth dynamics softened to 2.7% qoq, after 11.7% qoq and -10% qoq in the two previous quarters.
Citywire video-interview with Peter Marber
Watch Peter Marber, fund manager of this global, non-directional, long/short approach to Emerging Markets debt, in a video-interview by Citywire.
COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
According to the IMF’s Managing Director, strong international cooperation on coronavirus vaccine could speed up the world economic recovery and add $9 trillion to global income by 2025. A WHO trial found that Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon have little or no effect on hospitalized Covid-19 patients. Gilead Sciences has questioned the findings of the WHO study saying data appeared inconsistent.