April 30, 2020

Limping out of the lockdown

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In Short

China’s official NBS PMIs bounced back in March. The manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0, up from 35.7, while the non-manufacturing increased to 52.3 after 29.6 in February.
Limping out of the lockdown
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Highlights:

  • As new Covid-19 cases flatten out, governments prepare for the exit from lockdowns. This will ease economic pain. But it is a fragile enterprise, given the risk of resurging infections.
  • The global economy is headed for its worst slump since WWII, with the recovery set to be protracted and disinflationary pressures likely to grow.
  • Bold and timely responses by fiscal and monetary policy help to cushion the fallout, supporting risk sentiment and Credit markets in particular.
  • European leaders seem set to agree only on a soft form of intra-European burden sharing. EMU sovereign risk will remain largely in the hands of the ECB, which seems determined to deliver.

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