Market Commentary
Coronavirus shockwave hits oil complex


Despite an ongoing slowdown in the pace of coronavirus contagion, new cases have only reached a plateau. The lockdowns will be followed by a very slow normalization, requiring a heavy dose of social distancing.

  • The front WTI contract traded negative! Futures are below 30$ for the rest of the year. Such prices are clearly unsustainable, but efforts to put US producers on lifeblood risk keeping prices lower for longer.
  • US Congress has beefed up its already huge fiscal package, while the ECB, by relaxing its collateral rules, has broken yet another taboo. Good news for creditors.
  • Unfortunately governments are not moving as fast as the ECB. European Recovery Fund is in the making, but the devil will be in the details (still to be agreed). More positive vibes are required for peripheral spreads to narrow.

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Market Commentary - Coronavirus shockwave hits oil complex


China's economic recovery continued in Q3 2020, although a bit softer than expected. Real GDP growth rose to 4.9% yoy, slightly below the Reuters consensus expectation of 5.2% yoy, but still a substantial upturn from the 3.2% yoy in Q2. On a quarterly base, growth dynamics softened to 2.7% qoq, after 11.7% qoq and -10% qoq in the two previous quarters.
Citywire video-interview with Peter Marber
Watch Peter Marber, fund manager of this global, non-directional, long/short approach to Emerging Markets debt, in a video-interview by Citywire.
According to the IMF’s Managing Director, strong international cooperation on coronavirus vaccine could speed up the world economic recovery and add $9 trillion to global income by 2025. A WHO trial found that Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon have little or no effect on hospitalized Covid-19 patients. Gilead Sciences has questioned the findings of the WHO study saying data appeared inconsistent.