Market Compass
February 2020

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team.
A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.

The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

  • Just as the US/China trade truce provided broad-based relief, the new Coronavirus in China is unsettling global financial markets.

  • The fast-spreading disease is challenging the global macro rebound, but we still see resilience in the US and Euro area domestic demand.

  • Experience from past episodes suggests that markets tend to overshoot, but rebound once the number of new infections starts to slow.

  • We favour a more cautious stance near term. We maintain a moderate pro-risk tilt in the portfolios, but reduce our exposure to Equities and HighYield (HY) Credit. We keep our overweight in higher rated corporates andan underweight in government core bonds.

COVID-19 UPDATE: Facts & Figures 16/10/2020

RELATED INSIGHTS

CHINA’S RECOVERY CONTINUED BUT A BIT SOFTER THAN EXPECTED
China's economic recovery continued in Q3 2020, although a bit softer than expected. Real GDP growth rose to 4.9% yoy, slightly below the Reuters consensus expectation of 5.2% yoy, but still a substantial upturn from the 3.2% yoy in Q2. On a quarterly base, growth dynamics softened to 2.7% qoq, after 11.7% qoq and -10% qoq in the two previous quarters.
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COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
According to the IMF’s Managing Director, strong international cooperation on coronavirus vaccine could speed up the world economic recovery and add $9 trillion to global income by 2025. A WHO trial found that Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon have little or no effect on hospitalized Covid-19 patients. Gilead Sciences has questioned the findings of the WHO study saying data appeared inconsistent.