May 6, 2020

Market Compass May 2020

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In Short

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
Market Compass May 2020
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Highlights

  • As new Covid-19 cases flatten out, governments prepare to lift their lockdowns. This will ease economic pain, but it is a fragile enterprise, given the risk of resurging infections.
  • The global economy is headed for its worst slump since WWII, with the recovery set to be protracted and inflation to remain extremely low.
  • Bold and timely responses by fiscal and monetary policy help to cushion the fallout, supporting risk sentiment and Credit markets in particular.
  • European leaders seem set to agree only on a soft form of intra-European burden sharing. Managing the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) sovereign risk will remain largely in the hands of the ECB, which seems determined to deliver.
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