Market Compass
October 2020

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team.
A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.

The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Highlights

  • The surge in government and corporate debt will make its sustainability akey priority: financial repression, by means of extra low interest rates, isset to reach a whole new level.
  • Investors will need to navigate many icebergs this autumn: Coviduncertainties, a hard (or semi-hard) Brexit, the US elections. So ourpositive risk bias is cautious.
  • Looking beyond the Covid crisis, the economic recovery is set to continue, and supports more cyclical assets, like emerging currencies and equities.
  • Our largest overweight remains in Credit, where we recommend to godown the rating scale but not too much (BB).
Market Compass October 2020

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Market Compass January 2021
Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
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2021 will see a ‘repair’ of the deep Covid-19 damages, with the economy set to rebound strongly as society normalises into summer. But there is much to despair about. Potential growth will be lower out of this crisis. Employment will recover more slowly and Covid has fanned inequalities. Investors can also lament about the fall of future investment returns.