MARKET COMPASS
SEPTEMBER 2018

Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team. The team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.

The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

  • The strong US performance supports global growth, but political uncertainties (Trade war, Brexit, Italy) will weigh on sentiment over the next months. The increase in US policy rates will have global spillovers.
  • Some Emerging Markets’ currencies are weakening significantly given the higher US rates, but a global crisis looks unlikely, given the overall solid economic fundamentals.
  • Political uncertainty will keep core bond yields low for now. However, in the longer run, resilient growth, inflation and reduced support by central banks will support them.
  • Volatility in Developed Markets’ equity and rates appears low, given the forthcoming monetary tightening. We keep a defensive stance by holding cash and prefer equity over bonds given the looming monetary tightening.
COVID-19 UPDATE: Facts & Figures 16/10/2020

RELATED INSIGHTS

CHINA’S RECOVERY CONTINUED BUT A BIT SOFTER THAN EXPECTED
China's economic recovery continued in Q3 2020, although a bit softer than expected. Real GDP growth rose to 4.9% yoy, slightly below the Reuters consensus expectation of 5.2% yoy, but still a substantial upturn from the 3.2% yoy in Q2. On a quarterly base, growth dynamics softened to 2.7% qoq, after 11.7% qoq and -10% qoq in the two previous quarters.
Citywire video-interview with Peter Marber
Watch Peter Marber, fund manager of this global, non-directional, long/short approach to Emerging Markets debt, in a video-interview by Citywire.
COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
According to the IMF’s Managing Director, strong international cooperation on coronavirus vaccine could speed up the world economic recovery and add $9 trillion to global income by 2025. A WHO trial found that Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon have little or no effect on hospitalized Covid-19 patients. Gilead Sciences has questioned the findings of the WHO study saying data appeared inconsistent.