Edited by the Macro & Market Research Team.
A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues.
The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.
- The rally in risky assets is likely to flatten out. Rising new infections into the autumn and political risks (US politics, Brexit, Greece-Turkey confrontation) will hit sentiment.
- Yet recovering data, committed central banks, falling Covid-19 lethality and optimism about vaccines still support a slight pro-risk bias.
- We keep a prudent over-exposure to risky assets, centered on high-quality buckets of Credit.
- Longer term, we look to increase the pro-cyclical bias in portfolios as the Covid paralysis fades out.