- Global growth is finding its feet, but a powerful upswing is not around the corner: risks such a Hard Brexit (still!) and the US elections are impediments to a meaningful capex recovery.
- 2019 was in many ways similar to 2016; but 2020 will not be a repeat of 2017. We expect equity gains to continue, but in a far more muted fashion.
- Central banks engineered a stunning risk rally in 2019; they will be less active in 2020. But nascent efforts to make inflation targets more symmetrical will remain a risk-friendly force.
- Equities are still cheap relative to bonds: the gap between earnings and bond yields is somewhat irresistible.
At this level of outright valuation, however, the drawdown risk increases; timely hedging will be a focus in
- Avoid ‘risk-free’ bonds, but in that space prefer Treasuries as a hedging instrument. Credit continues to offer superior risk-adjusted returns. Expect the USD pullback initiated in Q4 2019 to continue (good for EM).