February 18, 2020

Tracing the virus hit.

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In Short

The January meeting brought no changes in either the assessment of the economy or in the policy rate.
Tracing the virus hit.
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  • The Coronavirus (Covid-19) is set to weigh markedly on global Q1 growth, owing to a sharp slowdown in China and supply chain disruptions. Just today, Apple has warned over its IPhone sales due to Covid-19 restrictions.
  • Indications are mounting, though, that a pandemic can be avoided, with the official number of new infections falling for almost two weeks. If the virus is indeed contained, most of the global economic damage – though not all – may be recovered over subsequent quarters. Our 2020 global growth forecast now stands at 2.8%, 0.2pp lower than before the epidemics.
  • As we anticipated in our Focal Point on Jan. 30, global markets are taking note. Equities in the advanced world have fully recovered their January losses, but we remain guardedly constructive on this asset class.
  • After the sharp fall, core bond yields are unlikely rebound quickly amid more dovish central bank expectations and subdued inflation.
  • IG Credit is likely to stay resilient, while USD strength may extend somewhat further until global data confirm a more robust recovery.

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