July 2, 2020

US EMPLOYMENT POWERS AHEAD IN JUNE, BUT NEW COVID OUTBREAKS CAST RECOVERY DOUBTS

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In Short

In June the US economy added 4.8 million of jobs, bringing the unemployment rate down to 11.1%.
US EMPLOYMENT POWERS AHEAD IN JUNE, BUT NEW COVID OUTBREAKS CAST RECOVERY DOUBTS
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Highlights:

  • The better than expected pace of job creation (+4.8m vs. +3m cons.) brought the unemployment rate back to 11.1%. Employment gains were particularly strong in sectors that reopened as restrictions were lifted. However, data collection took place before the new outburst of COVID in several states.
  • Higher frequency indicators like weekly jobless claims and daily mobility point to a slowdown in job creation. Recent evidence of another wave of cases in several large states points to downside risk.

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US EMPLOYMENT POWERS AHEAD IN JUNE, BUT NEW COVID OUTBREAKS CAST RECOVERY DOUBTS

RELATED INSIGHTS

COVID-19 UPDATE Facts & Figures
BioNTech and Pfizer raised their Covid-19 vaccine production target for this year to 2.5 billion doses. A WHO-China study on the origins of Covid-19 says that transmission of the virus from bats to humans through another animal is the most likely scenario and that a lab leak is “extremely unlikely”.
Remain positive on Topix despite recent weakness
The Topix had a strong start into the year, outperforming both the S&P500 and the MSCI EMU. Since March 17th this strong performance slowed down, in part due to a pause in the rotation into Value and Cyclicals which had negative spillovers into Topix.
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