July 2, 2020

US EMPLOYMENT POWERS AHEAD IN JUNE, BUT NEW COVID OUTBREAKS CAST RECOVERY DOUBTS

Market Commentary
02/07/2020

Highlights:

The better than expected pace of job creation (+4.8m vs. +3m cons.) brought the unemployment rate back to 11.1%. Employment gains were particularly strong in sectors that reopened as restrictions were lifted. However, data collection took place before the new outburst of COVID in several states.
Higher frequency indicators like weekly jobless claims and daily mobility point to a slowdown in job creation. Recent evidence of another wave of cases in several large states points to downside risk.

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China’s Q4 GDP growth surprised on the upside, but risks to the outlook have increased

18/01/2021

This morning, China published its Q4 GDP growth alongside with December monthly activity data. Q4 growth accelerated to 6.5% yoy which lifted total 2020 GDP to 2.3%. December real activity data were more mixed. While exports came in strongly, important domestic demand components were a bit unsteady.

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COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES

15/01/2021

US President-elect Joe Biden has unveiled a $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal. Following the recent increase in cases, China has imposed new restrictions and lockdowns in the Hebei province. Canada has implemented new restrictions and a provincewide curfew in Quebec that will last until February 8. German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that the recent rise in Covid-19 cases could force the country to prolong the nationwide lockdown until April.

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US: Fiscal stimulus to boost GDP growth to 5.5% in 2021

08/01/2021

The thin majority in the Senate will allow the incoming administration to deliver quickly a sizeable fiscal stimulus. We expect a package worth around US$ 800bn (on top of the US$ 900bn already agreed on in December), centred on the strengthening of direct income support to households, extended unemployment benefit and aid to local governments.

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January 18, 2021

Market Commentary

US EMPLOYMENT POWERS AHEAD IN JUNE, BUT NEW COVID OUTBREAKS CAST RECOVERY DOUBTS

In Short

Highlights:

Download the full publication below

RELATED INSIGHTS

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US INFLATION: RISING, NOT SOARING

China’s Q4 GDP growth surprised on the upside, but risks to the outlook have increased