- In November, US the economy added 266K new jobs, much above expectations. The unemployment rate fell to a record low of 3.5%.
- One off factors, like the end of the strikes in the auto sector, explain a part of the rebound. But employment growth was particularly strong in other sectors like healthcare.
- This very positive performance contrasts with the mixed signals coming from other data, like job openings and business surveys.
- The November labor market numbers will confirm the Fed in its decision to stay put; however, we still expect that weak Q1 will lead to another rate cut by the summer.
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BEATS EXPECTATIONS IN NOVEMBER. BUT OTHER INDICATORS POINT TO A WEAKENING LABOR MARKET