US job creation beats expectations in November.But other indicators point to a weakening labor market

In November, US the economy added 266K new jobs, much above expectations. The unemployment rate fell to a record low of 3.5%. One off factors, like the end of the strikes in the auto sector, explain a part of the rebound. But employment growth was particularly strong in other sectors like healthcare.

Highlights:

  • In November, US the economy added 266K new jobs, much above expectations. The unemployment rate fell to a record low of 3.5%.
  • One off factors, like the end of the strikes in the auto sector, explain a part of the rebound. But employment growth was particularly strong in other sectors like healthcare.
  • This very positive performance contrasts with the mixed signals coming from other data, like job openings and business surveys.
  • The November labor market numbers will confirm the Fed in its decision to stay put; however, we still expect that weak Q1 will lead to another rate cut by the summer.

Download the full publication below

US JOB CREATION
BEATS EXPECTATIONS IN NOVEMBER. BUT OTHER INDICATORS POINT TO A WEAKENING LABOR MARKET

RELATED INSIGHTS

CHINA’S RECOVERY CONTINUED BUT A BIT SOFTER THAN EXPECTED
China's economic recovery continued in Q3 2020, although a bit softer than expected. Real GDP growth rose to 4.9% yoy, slightly below the Reuters consensus expectation of 5.2% yoy, but still a substantial upturn from the 3.2% yoy in Q2. On a quarterly base, growth dynamics softened to 2.7% qoq, after 11.7% qoq and -10% qoq in the two previous quarters.
Citywire video-interview with Peter Marber
Watch Peter Marber, fund manager of this global, non-directional, long/short approach to Emerging Markets debt, in a video-interview by Citywire.
COVID-19 FACTS & FIGURES
According to the IMF’s Managing Director, strong international cooperation on coronavirus vaccine could speed up the world economic recovery and add $9 trillion to global income by 2025. A WHO trial found that Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon have little or no effect on hospitalized Covid-19 patients. Gilead Sciences has questioned the findings of the WHO study saying data appeared inconsistent.