US LABOR MARKET STARTS STABILIZING IN MAY

Employment data for May strongly surprised on the upside. According to today’s release 2.5 mn jobs were added in May against expectation of a sharp job destruction. However, the headline numbers were severely distorted by the fact that several workers on temporary layoff due to Covid-19 were classified as employed

  • Market Commentary

Highlights:

  • The surge in employment in May (2.5 million) was in large part due to a statistical misclassification. A more exact recording would put the unemployment rate at 16 to 16.5%, from the 13.3% of the official release. Alternative measurements show unemployment at around 20% in the first half of the month.

  • Jobless claims have likely peaked and higher frequency indicators point to a tentative increase in rehiring. However, uncertainty will slow down job creation and we expect an unemployment rate above 10% at the end of the year.

Download the full publication below

US LABOR MARKET STARTS STABILIZING IN MAY
Download
PDF
MORE INSIGHTS

RELATED INSIGHTS

READ NOW
FIRST Q2 EARNINGS RESULTS SHOW POSITIVE SURPRISES. EXPECT LIMITED NEGATIVE REVISIONS
Growth (yoy) is clearly negative but the magnitude should deteriorate further (to be in line with expectations) as more firms will report in the next few weeks: the next two weeks will see the bulk of reported results.
READ NOW
NO ECB SUMMER SURPRISE THIS YEAR, GOVERNING COUNCIL WANTS AGREEMENT ON RECOVERY FUND
After having augmented the volume of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) in June, the Governing Council did neither act nor announced outright action at today’s meeting.
READ NOW
CHINA’S GDP SURPRISED ON THE UPSIDE BUT DEMAND STAYED RATHER WEAK
China’s GDP rose by 3.2% yoy in Q2, after a Covid-19 related drop by 6.8% in Q1, according to data published by China’s statistical office this morning.
MORE INSIGHTS