- The autumn has confirmed that 2018 will be ‘annus horribilis’ for global financial assets. Credit markets are bleeding and October was the worst month for stocks since 2012. November has only seen a tentative stabilisation.
- The trade war remains the wild card. But somewhat milder forward guidance from the ECB and Fed should offer support into the finish line.
- While risks have risen, a deeper global slowdown is not around the corner. Amid more attractive entry points, we slightly extend a tilt towards IG credit and keep a small overweight in equities.