Market Compass Outlook 2025

In Short

A team of 13 analysts based in Paris, Cologne, Trieste, Milan and Prague runs qualitative and quantitative analysis on macroeconomic and financial issues. The team translates macro and quant views into investment ideas that feed into the investment process.

Highlights:

 

  • The return of Trump implies a higher level of policy uncertainty. Our assumption is that Republicans cannot afford another inflation shock, hence will refrain from embracing full-on Trumponomics.
  • Global growth is set to stabilise in 2025, with marked regional differences, e.g. 3 times faster in the US than the Euro Area. The desynchronisation of the growth cycle is set to feed into the inflation one: we see risks balanced in the Euro Area but skewed to the upside in the US.
  • Greater policy uncertainty, selected ambitious valuations (SPX, USD), and concentration point towards a rise in financial volatility in 2025. Instead, we see room for rates volatility to normalise further, while it will remain above the pre-Covid lows due to inflation uncertainty.

 

Download the full publication below

Compass 01 2025 FINAL.pdf
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