US: Recession looming, rate cuts at the end of the year

In Short

The impact of monetary tightening on the US economy is getting increasingly visible. We expect GDP to perform worse than consensus this year (0.6% versus 1.1%), Tighter credit may have an even bigger than expected impact on the economy and the compromise on the debt ceiling could come at a cost of cutting public expenditures.
  • Even if domestic demand proved rather strong in Q1, we still expect GDP to contract in H2. We push back to Q4 the worst of the recession that we anticipate. 
  • Excess savings and labour income resilience remain supportive to growth. But increasingly tighter credit standards and cracks in parts of the economy (such as Commercial Real Estate) could deepen the recession. We expect that a compromise on the debt ceiling results in fiscal consolidation, dampening an already weak 2024 growth outlook. The alternative would be an unprecedented period of chaos.
  • The Fed is done with tightening, but sticky inflation prevents an early pivot. We expect two rate cuts in Q4 of this year, roughly in line with current market pricing despite our more bearish growth outlook.
     

 

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US: Recession looming, rate cuts at the end of the year
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