April 16, 2021

China’s Q1 GDP growth: Strong year-on-year growth amid weak momentum

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In Short

This morning, China’s statistical office published its Q1 2021 GDP growth estimate alongside with other monthly real activity data for March. GDP growth accelerated from 6.5% yoy in the final quarter of last year to 18.3% yoy.
China’s Q1 GDP growth: Strong year-on-year growth amid weak momentum
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Highlights:

 
  • China’s Q1 GDP growth accelerated to 18.3% yoy while the growth momentum was the lowest on record (except Q1 2020).
  • We expect it to normalise in Q2 while yoy growth could cool into a range of 7% to 8% yoy.
  • These fluctuations are embedded into a generally less supportive monetary and fiscal stance.
  • The PBoC already slowed money expansion. We expect the bulk of withdrawal of fiscal support only after the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party on July 1.

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