Will the Bank of Japan drop its Yield Curve Control policy soon?

In Short

Japan’s monetary policy has become a strong outlier in the international context. While all major central banks rushed to tighten policy to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched.

Highlights:

  • The ongoing monetary expansion of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has become a strong outlier internationally, sparking worries of forthcoming market turmoil if recovering inflation forces BoJ is into an abrupt exit from its yield curve control (YCC). However, we deem this not very likely.
  • While energy prices and depreciation of the yen will lift inflation rate to about 4% yoy by the turn of the year this supply shock does not trigger a sustainable, virtuous wage-price cycle the central bank is aiming at. But it will likely be sufficient for the BoJ to begin adjusting its policy stance cautiously over the course of 2023. 
  • Short- and medium-dated Japanese government bond yields are seen to track the monetary policy steps upwards. By contrast, very long-dated bond yields are being pulled down by the global yield environment, triggering a flattening of the very long end of the curve. The yen will benefit from a declining yield gap vs. the US.
     

Download the full publication below

Will the Bank of Japan drop its Yield Curve Control policy soon?
Picture

© Generali Investments, all rights reserved. This website is provided by Generali Investments Luxembourg S.A. (Generali Investments) and is considered as a marketing communication and financial promotion related its products and services. This website may contain information related to the activity of the following companies: Generali Asset Management S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Infranity, Sycomore Asset Management, Aperture Investors LLC (including Aperture Investors UK Ltd), Plenisfer Investments S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Lumyna Investments Limited, Sosteneo S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Generali Real Estate S.p.A. Società di gestione del risparmio, Conning* and among its subsidiaries Global Evolution Asset Management A/S - including Global Evolution USA, LLC and Global Evolution Fund Management Singapore Pte. Ltd - Octagon Credit Investors, LLC, Pearlmark Real Estate, LLC as well as Generali Investments CEE. *Includes Conning, Inc., Conning Asset Management Limited, Conning Asia Pacific Limited, Conning Investment Products, Inc., Goodwin Capital Advisers, Inc. (collectively, “Conning”).