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Supply shock = central banks’ headache

In Short

Markets have climbed a wall of stagflation worries in October. Global equities have basically unwound the September drawdown (MSCI World: +5% as of Oct 28), defying soaring inflation expectations and benefiting the maintained (though trimmed) pro-risk tilt in our portfolios.

Highlights:

  • The global recovery still has legs, keeping corporate earnings and risk sentiment underpinned.
  • Yet mounting uncertainties over the energy crunch and central banks’ response to more sticky inflation are making us more prudent.
  • We scale back our overweight in Equities and HY Credit, adding to overweights in IG Credit and Cash. We keep a prudent short duration stance, anticipating only a gradual further rise in yields.

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Market Perspectives ǀ Supply shock = central banks’ headache
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